Donald Trump: Posts, week ending Jul 12, 2026
In the week ending Jul 12, 2026, Donald Trump posted 10 of the 17 words Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 14 of 17 settlements.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 10 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 17- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | Yes | 10 | 13 | ✓ | 68%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Crime | Yes | 9 | 10 | ✓ | 70%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Gold / Golden | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 63%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 53%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Scam | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 33%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Football | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 30%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Wall Street | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 28%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 53%n=166 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 43%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Pope | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 37%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Goal | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mutilization | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ronaldo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Soccer | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=425 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Posts
counts only; post text is not shownTruth Social posts by @realDonaldTrump, via CNN's public archive · The posts
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-12:posts_window · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-12:posts_window · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP