Donald Trump: Interview, Jun 29, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say on Sunday Morning Futures?
Markets
25 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 63%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 59%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| India | Yes | 56%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 54%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 49%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Trade | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Success / Successful | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ever | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 40%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Canada | Yes | 38%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 36%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | Yes | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| CNN | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pakistan | No | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Bunker | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Jail | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Decimated | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Modhi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Victory | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 34%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25JUN29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP