Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 13, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at his meeting with the Secretary General of NATO?
Polymarket What will Trump say during meeting with NATO Secretary General today?
Markets
50 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 59%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 57%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 47%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Delinquent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Poland | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Two percent / 2% | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Energy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Putin 3+ times | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fair share | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pipeline | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beautiful 5+ times | Yes | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | No | 47%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ally / Allies / Alliance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Article 13 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Article 5 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Brussels | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Burden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Contribution / Due | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defense | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Denunciation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deterrence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Freeload / Freeloaders | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Globalist | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Missile | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peacekeeping | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pentagon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rearmament | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Turkey | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Umbrella | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| UN / United Nations | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Withdrawal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Germany | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Backstop | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| F-35 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Security 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| UK / United Kingdom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zelenskyy 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| France | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | No | 28%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 10%n=66 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTNATOMENTION-25MAR13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP