Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 11, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Oval Office announcement?
Markets
28 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 71%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 69%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Deal | Yes | 68%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 61%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Military / Veteran | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Chicago | Yes | 51%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 51%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | Yes | 49%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Portland | Yes | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 40%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Pharmaceutical | Yes | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 84%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 67%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 67%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Tylenol | No | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 57%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | 51%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel Peace Prize | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Schumer | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 37%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Health / Healthy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rare Earth | No | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP