Donald Trump: Speech, Sep 23, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?
Polymarket What will Trump say during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 23?
Markets
47 words · 31 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 73%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 64%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 62%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 59%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 55%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Seven Wars | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Golden Age | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | 52%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Europe / European | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 51%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 51%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| October 7th | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 250 / 250th | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Globalist / Globalism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | Yes | 46%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trafficking / Smuggling | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dead | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigration / Migration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 7+ times | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sovereignty | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | Yes | 40%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 37%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 36%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 62%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 54%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| King | No | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fair Share | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America / American 30+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Communism / Socialism | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 47%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Vladimir | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Peace 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| God 5+ times | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| World War | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 31%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 11%n=124 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP