Donald Trump: Keynote, May 1, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at University of Alabama Commencement?
Polymarket What will Trump say during his University of Alabama commencement speech on May 1?
Markets
39 words · 28 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 58%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 52%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | Yes | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Women's Sports | Yes | 46%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Plant | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Judge | Yes | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 3+ times | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful 3+ times | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Dog | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| American Dream | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Brilliant | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Career | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Child | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Future | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Georgia | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of Mine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ainsworth | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crimson | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Freedom | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Roll Tide | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saban | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Success | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tuberville | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala | No | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crime | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Coal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hamas | No | 38%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 37%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| DEI / Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion | No | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Antisemitism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Student Loan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Woke | No | 26%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 19%n=84 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP