Donald Trump: Remarks, May 20, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Announcement?
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beautiful | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hegseth | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Missile | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | Yes | 33%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Houthis | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Qatar | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Plane | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safest | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Signal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Carnage | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP