Donald Trump: Interview, Aug 5, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Live Airing of his appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Squawk Box on August 5?
Markets
59 words · 23 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 71%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 70%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| India | Yes | 61%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 53%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 53%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Fed / Federal Reserve | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Chip | Yes | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late / Fed | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| EU / European Union | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times | Yes | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala / Harris | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff 3+ times | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hottest Country | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Powell | Yes | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 32%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 63%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 56%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 54%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Genius | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Canada | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 49%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 48%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 48%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Golden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nvidia | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Brazil / Bolsonaro | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sanction | No | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| DEI | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Adriana / Kugler | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ballroom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| BLS / Bureau of Labor Statistics | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cramer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Earnings | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jobs Numbers | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MSDNC | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sydney Sweeney | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reciprocal | No | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Boom | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MIT / Massachusetts Institute of Technology | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sydney / Sweeney | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 37%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla | No | 37%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | No | 36%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Immigration | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 33%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 31%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 17%n=103 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25AUG05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP