Donald Trump: Rally, Apr 29, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at the Macomb County Rally?
Polymarket What will Trump say during his 100 Day Commemorative Rally on April 29?
Markets
46 words · 28 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border 15+ times | Yes | 61%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 61%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 60%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | Yes | 60%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 57%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| China 7+ times | Yes | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 52%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 50%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Deport | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| History of the world | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joe / Biden 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Loan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Not allowed to say | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golden Age | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | Yes | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alien | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kennedy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Gang | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hegseth | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| El Salvador | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Reciprocal | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NAFTA | No | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hillary / Clinton | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | No | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 42%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Automotive | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Budget | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bukele | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MIT / Massachusetts Institute of Technology | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Xi / Jinping | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 39%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | No | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Recession | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 12%n=82 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25APR29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP