Donald Trump: Speech, Jun 15, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the U.S. Army 250th Anniversary Speech?
Markets
29 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriot | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Medal of Honor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | Yes | 37%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 76%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 75%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 71%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 66%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 65%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | 65%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Veterans | No | 63%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 62%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 59%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 56%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| LA / Los Angeles | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Strongest | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender | No | 54%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Fag day | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Frankly | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| German | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Guard | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Patton | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Riot | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | No | 50%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Birthday | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| January 6 | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| National security | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 26%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP