Donald Trump: Press conference, Jun 25, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at his Press Conference at the NATO summit?
Markets
25 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 59%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 52%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 51%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 48%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Patriot | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 37%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| War | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Article | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bunker | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ever | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obliterated | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Spending | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strike | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | Yes | 33%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Defense | Yes | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Deterrence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | Yes | 29%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Zelenskyy | Yes | 28%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Security | Yes | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 24%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Dog | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Dogecoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alliance | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25JUN25-2 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP