Donald Trump: Press conference, May 13, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Press Conference with RFK?
Markets
25 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 57%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| India | Yes | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fairness | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pakistan | Yes | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Houthis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Medicare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prescription | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pricing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reduction | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saudi | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| UAE / United Arab Emirates | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sucker | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drug | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pharmaceutical | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Chip | No | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 30%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Laboratory | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Savings | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gaza | No | 24%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP