Donald Trump: Remarks, May 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks at The Villages?
Polymarket What will Trump say during remarks at The Villages?
Markets
66 words · 40 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 66%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | 65%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 61%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 60%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 58%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Melania / First Lady | Yes | 58%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 57%n=165 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 56%n=130 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 55%n=134 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 54%n=238 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 53%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Dell | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 52%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Stock market / 401(k) | Yes | 50%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 49%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 49%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Power / Electricity | Yes | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | Yes | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 44%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Grocery | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 42%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 42%n=213 from settlement history | – |
| Job 10+ times | Yes | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 10+ times | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Military | Yes | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful Bill | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deduction | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joe / Biden 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Save America | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 15+ times | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late | Yes | 37%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 36%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 35%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| Fat | Yes | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Percent 20+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Six Seven | Yes | 32%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| No No No | Yes | 27%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Mar-a-Lago | No | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 48%n=148 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | No | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| DoorDash / McDonald's | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 45%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Waiter / Waitress | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cookie / Potato | No | 44%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 43%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 41%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Kimmel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mars | No | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Disney | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Cup | No | 38%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| DeSantis | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Highest Inflation | No | 37%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 36%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Butler | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Kickback | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| COVID / Pandemic | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Unaffordable Care Act | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 31%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Obamacare | No | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 29%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | 29%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=352 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY01C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP