Will Donald Trump say “Illegal Alien”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Illegal Alien” at 20 of 55 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 3, 2024 (36%), most recently on Aug 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=55, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no no no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Illegal Alien
- Probability
- 46% · n=55
- Settled
- 20/55 (36%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Supreme Court of the United States, giving free health care to all illegal aliens, defunding the police, closing all prisons, releasing thousands of violent criminals…
…of deadly sanctuary cities. He voted to give lavish welfare benefits to illegal aliens and even wrote a memo giving illegal alien criminals instructions on…
…poured through, totally unchecked, totally unvetted. In the past 17 months, zero illegal aliens have been admitted to the United States. ZERO, RIGHT? Remember the…
…old, actually, well over 100, many, many over 100. We kicked 275,000 illegal aliens off of Social Security. And Frank has been amazing in Social…
…they're invited. Unless they have permission. In the past 16 months, zero illegal aliens have been admitted to the United States. And that's done by…
Every settled listing
newest first · 55 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Illegal Alien |  Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Illegal Alien |  Polymarket | Yes | 10 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 22, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 18, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Illegal alien | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Illegal Alien | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 3, 2024 | Illegal alien | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Illegal Alien”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Illegal Alien” at 20 of 55 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 3, 2024 (36%), most recently on Aug 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Illegal Alien” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=55). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Illegal Alien’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/illegal-alien (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=illegal%20alien · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP