Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 22, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Diwali Celebration?
Markets
22 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 81%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 80%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 73%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 63%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 62%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 61%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| India | Yes | 58%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 58%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 54%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | Yes | 54%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 50%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Modi | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hindu / Hinduism | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kash / Patel | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 42%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiation | Yes | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | Yes | 37%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 29%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 55%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 45%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP