Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 22, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Rose Garden Club Lunch?
Markets
24 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 81%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 78%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 71%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 69%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 66%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 60%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 59%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | 56%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| India | Yes | 52%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 48%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Radical | Yes | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 42%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | Yes | 38%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | Yes | 32%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | No | 56%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Dead Country | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| 999 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 40%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Hamas | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nobel | No | 25%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 21%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP