Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 5, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the National Christmas Tree Lighting?
Markets
19 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peace | Yes | 59%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 58%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | 53%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Military | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 50%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Jesus | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Merry Christmas | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Park | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 74%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 72%n=120 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 64%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 56%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 48%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Veteran | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 43%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Army | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Santa | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Virginia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 27%n=28 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP