Donald Trump: Remarks, Nov 13, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his shutdown end announcement?
Polymarket What will Trump or Melania say during the Executive Order signing on November 13?
Markets
39 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 72%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 66%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 57%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| College | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | 44%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Innovation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obama | Yes | 42%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 41%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Scott / Turner | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Be Best | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Foster 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Welfare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beautiful 5+ times | Yes | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Job 5+ times | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | Yes | 36%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Health | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 31%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 76%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 70%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 57%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 56%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Kash / Patel | No | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 49%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 46%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 46%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 44%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Stimulus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 41%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Linda / McMahon | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Back Pay | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Congress / Senator 8+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Darling / Sweetie | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fed / Too Late | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 34%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | No | 32%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 25%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 14%n=178 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP