Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 10, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks in Pennsylvania?
Markets
32 words · 27 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 72%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 66%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 60%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Military | Yes | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | Yes | 53%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| 250 / Olympics | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 51%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 50%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 48%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 47%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Frack / Fracking | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 44%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| November 5 | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 43%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Highest Inflation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 41%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | 40%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 38%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 37%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 37%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 32%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border Patrol | Yes | 30%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 25%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Beef | No | 56%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Casino | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 28%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 9%n=201 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP