Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 25, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the rally for Jack Ciattarelli?
Markets
24 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 66%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | Yes | 65%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | Yes | 62%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 61%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 60%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 58%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 79%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | No | 60%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 59%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Bedminster | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Congestion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Flip | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scandal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | 53%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheated | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| New York | No | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Antisemitism / Antisemitic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crook / Crooked | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Invest / Investment | No | 48%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 47%n=32 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP