Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 3, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?
Markets
21 words · 17 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border 15+ times | Yes | 76%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 75%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Million 10+ times | Yes | 72%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | Yes | 65%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Debate | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Make America Affordable Again | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China 10+ times | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 3+ times | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| World War 3 | Yes | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal alien | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Missile defense shield | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax Queen | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Comrade Kamala | Yes | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Border 25+ times | No | 59%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 49%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Mentally Impaired/Disabled | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 12%n=17 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-michigan-rally-oct-3 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP