Donald Trump: Interview, Mar 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Jake Paul interview?
Markets
22 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | Yes | 69%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 60%n=202 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 56%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 53%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Olympic / Olympics | Yes | 48%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 45%n=168 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 41%n=111 from settlement history | – |
| Dana | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tyson | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| UFC | Yes | 35%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | Yes | 29%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 52%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 50%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Jutta / Leerdam | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Logan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America First | No | 33%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 30%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 24%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | 21%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 10%n=304 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPRESMENTION-DJT26APR30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP