Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 23, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the NATO meeting?
Markets
24 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 82%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 74%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 65%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 57%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 54%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Tomahawk | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drug | Yes | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Putin | Yes | 46%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 43%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 35%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 64%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 63%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Bargain | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Event Does Not Occur | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Schumer | No | 42%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Dead Country | No | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | No | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Defense | No | 38%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Hamas | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 22%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 19%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP