Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 4, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?
Markets
21 words · 3 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illegal Alien | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAGA 3+ times | Yes | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hezbollah | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million 10+ times | No | 63%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | No | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 56%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Debate | No | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Queen | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| President Xi 2+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trans | No | 44%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 43%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Disgrace 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala 40+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obamacare/Affordable Care Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ronald Reagan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| School Shooter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 20+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 14%n=18 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-north-carolina-town-hall · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP