Donald Trump: Press conference, Oct 16, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Press Conference?
Markets
25 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 70%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 66%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 45%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | Yes | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gang | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | Yes | 34%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Criminal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Disaster | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Memphis | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 47%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Lunatic | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Portland | No | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Cambodia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pig | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trafficking | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Woke | No | 28%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Political Violence | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Soros | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 24%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | 24%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=137 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT16B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP