Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 16, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Christmas Reception?
Markets
18 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | No | 76%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 69%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 67%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 63%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Hanukkah | No | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 59%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 57%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 54%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 52%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Bondi | No | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crime | No | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Rob Reiner | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 37%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Santa | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 32%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 16%n=25 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP