Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 16, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Mexican Border Defense Medal Presentation?
Markets
20 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 76%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 68%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 66%n=128 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 62%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 53%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 51%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | 43%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Tom / Homan | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 37%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 36%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 35%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 28%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 61%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 44%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 38%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 23%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | No | 18%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 17%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 8%n=207 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP