Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 5, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his meetings with the Presidents of Rwanda and the Congo?
Markets
21 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 73%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 71%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 57%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 44%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 41%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 40%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 23%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 67%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 65%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| India | No | 55%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| November 5 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somalia / Somalian / Somali | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 47%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 45%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Genocide | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Christian / Christianity | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas | No | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 29%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 23%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 10%n=195 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP