Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 6, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say at Wisconsin rally?
Markets
17 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Million 10+ times | Yes | 76%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | Yes | 71%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal alien | Yes | 63%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 3+ times | Yes | 63%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Missile defense shield | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| JD Vance | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon Musk | Yes | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala 30+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax 20+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 30+ times | Yes | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 64%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 63%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Comrade Kamala | No | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 41%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 10%n=20 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-at-wisconsin-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP