Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 17, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Oval Office announcement?
Markets
28 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 82%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 75%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 63%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | 52%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 73%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 65%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Chicago | No | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 55%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 55%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 54%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 53%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Dead Country | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Memphis | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Lunatic | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | No | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Embryo | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Holistic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reproductive | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Soybean / Soy Bean | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sperm | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist | No | 34%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 32%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 29%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 27%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 11%n=140 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP