Donald Trump: Rally, May 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Tele-Rally with Barry Moore?
Markets
20 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax | Yes | 61%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 60%n=253 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 58%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 57%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 39%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 36%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 67%n=141 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | No | 66%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 58%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 52%n=232 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheated | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 47%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 45%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 43%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | No | 41%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 38%n=149 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordability / Affordable | No | 27%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=371 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP