Donald Trump: Rally, Nov 4, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the VA rally?
Markets
17 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax | Yes | 66%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 64%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 64%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 61%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 61%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 60%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 55%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | Yes | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 49%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 43%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt | No | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 52%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Bedminster | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheated | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Invest / Investment | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 40%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP