Jerome Powell
History Wall
41–140 of 165, most settled first · page 2 of 3| Word | Aug 22 ’25speech | Aug 24speech | Sep 23speech | Oct 14speech | Oct 15speech | Oct 25remarks | Dec 2panel | Mar 19 ’26remarks | Mar 30remarks | May 31latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar | Not listed: Dollar, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled no: Dollar, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Dollar, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Dollar, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Dollar, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Dollar, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Dollar, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Dollar, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Dollar, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Dollar, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 1/250% | 38%n=2 from settlement history |
| Dual Mandate | Not listed: Dual Mandate, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Dual Mandate, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Dual Mandate, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Dual Mandate, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Dual Mandate, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Dual Mandate, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Dual Mandate, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Dual Mandate, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Dual Mandate, Mar 30 remarks | Settled no: Dual Mandate, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 1/250% | 24%n=2 from settlement history |
| GDP / Gross Domestic Product | Not listed: GDP / Gross Domestic Product, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: GDP / Gross Domestic Product, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: GDP / Gross Domestic Product, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: GDP / Gross Domestic Product, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: GDP / Gross Domestic Product, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: GDP / Gross Domestic Product, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: GDP / Gross Domestic Product, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: GDP / Gross Domestic Product, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: GDP / Gross Domestic Product, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: GDP / Gross Domestic Product, May 31 remarks | – | 1/250% | 39%n=2 from settlement history |
| Goods inflation | Not listed: Goods inflation, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Goods inflation, Aug 24 speech | Settled no: Goods inflation, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Goods inflation, Oct 14 speech | Settled yes: Goods inflation, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Goods inflation, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Goods inflation, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Goods inflation, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Goods inflation, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Goods inflation, May 31 remarks | 1/250% | 1/250% | 42%n=2 from settlement history |
| Inflation50+ times | Settled yes: Inflation 50+ times, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Inflation 50+ times, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Inflation 50+ times, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Inflation 50+ times, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Inflation 50+ times, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Inflation 50+ times, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Inflation 50+ times, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Inflation 50+ times, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Inflation 50+ times, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Inflation 50+ times, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/250% | 42%n=2 from settlement history |
| Money | Not listed: Money, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Money, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Money, Sep 23 speech | Settled yes: Money, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Money, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Money, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Money, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Money, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Money, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Money, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/250% | 49%n=2 from settlement history |
| Oil | Not listed: Oil, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Oil, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Oil, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Oil, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Oil, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Oil, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Oil, Dec 2 panel | Settled no: Oil, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: Oil, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Oil, May 31 remarks | 1/250% | 1/250% | 42%n=2 from settlement history |
| Probability | Not listed: Probability, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Probability, Aug 24 speech | Settled no: Probability, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Probability, Oct 14 speech | Settled yes: Probability, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Probability, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Probability, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Probability, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Probability, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Probability, May 31 remarks | 1/250% | 1/250% | 42%n=2 from settlement history |
| Uncertainty5+ times | Not listed: Uncertainty (5+ Times), Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Uncertainty (5+ Times), Aug 24 speech | Settled yes: Uncertainty (5+ Times), Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Uncertainty (5+ Times), Oct 14 speech | Settled no: Uncertainty (5+ Times), Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Uncertainty (5+ Times), Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Uncertainty (5+ Times), Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Uncertainty (5+ Times), Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Uncertainty (5+ Times), Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Uncertainty (5+ Times), May 31 remarks | 1/250% | 1/250% | 40%n=2 from settlement history |
| Alumni | Not listed: Alumni, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Alumni, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Alumni, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Alumni, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Alumni, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Alumni, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Alumni, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Alumni, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Alumni, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Alumni, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/20% | 20%n=2 from settlement history |
| Anchor | Not listed: Anchor, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled no: Anchor, Aug 24 speech | Settled no: Anchor, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Anchor, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Anchor, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Anchor, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Anchor, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Anchor, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Anchor, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Anchor, May 31 remarks | 0/20% | 0/20% | 21%n=2 from settlement history |
| China | Not listed: China, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: China, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: China, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: China, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: China, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: China, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: China, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: China, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: China, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: China, May 31 remarks | – | 0/20% | 25%n=2 from settlement history |
| Climate | Not listed: Climate, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled no: Climate, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Climate, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Climate, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Climate, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Climate, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Climate, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Climate, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Climate, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Climate, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/20% | 25%n=2 from settlement history |
| Iran | Not listed: Iran, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Iran, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Iran, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Iran, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Iran, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Iran, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Iran, Dec 2 panel | Settled no: Iran, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Iran, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Iran, May 31 remarks | 0/20% | 0/20% | 16%n=2 from settlement history |
| Kevin / Warsh | Not listed: Kevin / Warsh, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Kevin / Warsh, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Kevin / Warsh, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Kevin / Warsh, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Kevin / Warsh, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Kevin / Warsh, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Kevin / Warsh, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Kevin / Warsh, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Kevin / Warsh, Mar 30 remarks | Settled no: Kevin / Warsh, May 31 remarks | 0/20% | 0/20% | 15%n=2 from settlement history |
| Leverage Ratio | Not listed: Leverage Ratio, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Leverage Ratio, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Leverage Ratio, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Leverage Ratio, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Leverage Ratio, Oct 15 speech | Settled no: Leverage Ratio, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Leverage Ratio, Dec 2 panel | Settled no: Leverage Ratio, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Leverage Ratio, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Leverage Ratio, May 31 remarks | 0/20% | 0/20% | 17%n=2 from settlement history |
| QE / Quantitative Easing | Not listed: QE / Quantitative Easing, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: QE / Quantitative Easing, Aug 24 speech | Settled no: QE / Quantitative Easing, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: QE / Quantitative Easing, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: QE / Quantitative Easing, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: QE / Quantitative Easing, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: QE / Quantitative Easing, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: QE / Quantitative Easing, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: QE / Quantitative Easing, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: QE / Quantitative Easing, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/20% | 25%n=2 from settlement history |
| Rate Cut | Settled no: Rate Cut, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Rate Cut, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Rate Cut, Sep 23 speech | Settled no: Rate Cut, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Rate Cut, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Rate Cut, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Rate Cut, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Rate Cut, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Rate Cut, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Rate Cut, May 31 remarks | 0/20% | 0/20% | 20%n=2 from settlement history |
| Reciprocal | Not listed: Reciprocal, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Reciprocal, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Reciprocal, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Reciprocal, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Reciprocal, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Reciprocal, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Reciprocal, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Reciprocal, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Reciprocal, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Reciprocal, May 31 remarks | – | 0/20% | 27%n=2 from settlement history |
| Russia | Settled no: Russia, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled no: Russia, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Russia, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Russia, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Russia, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Russia, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Russia, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Russia, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Russia, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Russia, May 31 remarks | 0/20% | 0/20% | 24%n=2 from settlement history |
| Stagflation | Not listed: Stagflation, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Stagflation, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Stagflation, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Stagflation, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Stagflation, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Stagflation, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Stagflation, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Stagflation, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Stagflation, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Stagflation, May 31 remarks | – | 0/20% | 27%n=2 from settlement history |
| Tariff Inflation | Not listed: Tariff Inflation, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Tariff Inflation, Aug 24 speech | Settled no: Tariff Inflation, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Tariff Inflation, Oct 14 speech | Settled no: Tariff Inflation, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Tariff Inflation, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Tariff Inflation, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Tariff Inflation, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Tariff Inflation, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Tariff Inflation, May 31 remarks | 0/20% | 0/20% | 21%n=2 from settlement history |
| Tax | Not listed: Tax, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Tax, Aug 24 speech | Settled no: Tax, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Tax, Oct 14 speech | Settled no: Tax, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Tax, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Tax, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Tax, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Tax, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Tax, May 31 remarks | 0/20% | 0/20% | 21%n=2 from settlement history |
| Trade War | Not listed: Trade War, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Trade War, Aug 24 speech | Settled no: Trade War, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Trade War, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Trade War, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Trade War, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Trade War, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Trade War, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Trade War, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Trade War, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/20% | 25%n=2 from settlement history |
| Transitory | Not listed: Transitory, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled no: Transitory, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Transitory, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Transitory, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Transitory, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Transitory, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Transitory, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Transitory, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Transitory, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Transitory, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/20% | 25%n=2 from settlement history |
| Trillion | Not listed: Trillion, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Trillion, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Trillion, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 15 speech | Settled no: Trillion, Oct 25 remarks | Settled no: Trillion, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Trillion, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Trillion, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Trillion, May 31 remarks | 0/20% | 0/20% | 21%n=2 from settlement history |
| Unchanged | Not listed: Unchanged, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Unchanged, Aug 24 speech | Settled no: Unchanged, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Unchanged, Oct 14 speech | Settled no: Unchanged, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Unchanged, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Unchanged, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Unchanged, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Unchanged, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Unchanged, May 31 remarks | 0/20% | 0/20% | 21%n=2 from settlement history |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| America | Not listed: America, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: America, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: America, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: America, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: America, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: America, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: America, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: America, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: America, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: America, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bank | Not listed: Bank, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Bank, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Bank, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Bank, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Bank, Oct 15 speech | Settled yes: Bank, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Bank, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Bank, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Bank, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Bank, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bond | Not listed: Bond, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Bond, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Bond, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Bond, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Bond, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Bond, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Bond, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Bond, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Bond, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Bond, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Depression | Not listed: Depression, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Depression, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Depression, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Depression, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Depression, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Depression, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Depression, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Depression, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Depression, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Depression, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Dual | Not listed: Dual, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Dual, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Dual, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Dual, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Dual, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Dual, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Dual, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Dual, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Dual, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Dual, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ELB / Effective Lower Bound | Not listed: ELB / Effective Lower Bound, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: ELB / Effective Lower Bound, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: ELB / Effective Lower Bound, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: ELB / Effective Lower Bound, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: ELB / Effective Lower Bound, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: ELB / Effective Lower Bound, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: ELB / Effective Lower Bound, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: ELB / Effective Lower Bound, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: ELB / Effective Lower Bound, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: ELB / Effective Lower Bound, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Employment | Not listed: Employment, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Employment, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Employment, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Employment, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Employment, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Employment, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Employment, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Employment, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Employment, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Employment, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee | Not listed: FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: FOMC / Federal Open Market Committee, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Federal Register | Not listed: Federal Register, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Federal Register, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Federal Register, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Federal Register, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Federal Register, Oct 15 speech | Settled yes: Federal Register, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Federal Register, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Federal Register, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Federal Register, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Federal Register, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Federal Reserve2+ times | Not listed: Federal Reserve 2+, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Federal Reserve 2+, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Federal Reserve 2+, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Federal Reserve 2+, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Federal Reserve 2+, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Federal Reserve 2+, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Federal Reserve 2+, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Federal Reserve 2+, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Federal Reserve 2+, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Federal Reserve 2+, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Framework | Not listed: Framework, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Framework, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Framework, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Framework, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Framework, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Framework, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Framework, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Framework, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Framework, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Framework, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Friends | Not listed: Friends, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Friends, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Friends, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Friends, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Friends, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Friends, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Friends, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Friends, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Friends, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Friends, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Good Evening | Not listed: Good Evening, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Good Evening, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Good Evening, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Good Evening, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Good Evening, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Good Evening, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Good Evening, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Good Evening, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Good Evening, Mar 30 remarks | Settled yes: Good Evening, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Growth | Not listed: Growth, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Growth, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Growth, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Growth, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Growth, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Growth, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Growth, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Growth, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Growth, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Growth, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Laubach | Not listed: Laubach, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Laubach, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Laubach, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Laubach, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Laubach, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Laubach, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Laubach, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Laubach, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Laubach, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Laubach, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Market | Not listed: Market, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Market, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Market, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Market, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Market, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Market, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Market, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Market, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Market, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Market, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Meeting | Not listed: Meeting, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Meeting, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Meeting, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Meeting, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Meeting, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Meeting, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Meeting, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Meeting, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Meeting, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Meeting, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Pardon Me / Sorry | Not listed: Pardon Me / Sorry, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Pardon Me / Sorry, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Pardon Me / Sorry, Sep 23 speech | Settled yes: Pardon Me / Sorry, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Pardon Me / Sorry, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Pardon Me / Sorry, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Pardon Me / Sorry, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Pardon Me / Sorry, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Pardon Me / Sorry, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Pardon Me / Sorry, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Parents | Not listed: Parents, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Parents, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Parents, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Parents, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Parents, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Parents, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Parents, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Parents, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Parents, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Parents, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Political / Politics | Not listed: Political / Politics, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Political / Politics, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Political / Politics, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Political / Politics, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Political / Politics, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Political / Politics, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Political / Politics, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Political / Politics, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Political / Politics, Mar 30 remarks | Settled yes: Political / Politics, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Production | Not listed: Production, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Production, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Production, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Production, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Production, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Production, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Production, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Production, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Production, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Production, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Reagan | Not listed: Reagan, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Reagan, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Reagan, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Reagan, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Reagan, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Reagan, Oct 25 remarks | Settled yes: Reagan, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Reagan, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Reagan, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Reagan, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Regulator/ regulatory / regulation | Not listed: Regulator/ regulatory / regulation, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Regulator/ regulatory / regulation, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Regulator/ regulatory / regulation, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Regulator/ regulatory / regulation, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Regulator/ regulatory / regulation, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Regulator/ regulatory / regulation, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Regulator/ regulatory / regulation, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Regulator/ regulatory / regulation, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Regulator/ regulatory / regulation, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Regulator/ regulatory / regulation, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Shock | Not listed: Shock, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Shock, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Shock, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Shock, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Shock, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Shock, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Shock, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Shock, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Settled yes: Shock, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Shock, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Spending | Not listed: Spending, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Spending, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Spending, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Spending, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Spending, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Spending, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Spending, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Spending, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Spending, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Spending, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Stress Test / Stress Testing | Not listed: Stress Test / Stress Testing, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Stress Test / Stress Testing, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Stress Test / Stress Testing, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Stress Test / Stress Testing, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Stress Test / Stress Testing, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Stress Test / Stress Testing, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Stress Test / Stress Testing, Dec 2 panel | Settled yes: Stress Test / Stress Testing, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Stress Test / Stress Testing, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Stress Test / Stress Testing, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Surcharge | Not listed: Surcharge, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Surcharge, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Surcharge, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Surcharge, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Surcharge, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Surcharge, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Surcharge, Dec 2 panel | Settled yes: Surcharge, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Surcharge, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Surcharge, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Symposium | Not listed: Symposium, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Symposium, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Symposium, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Symposium, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Symposium, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Symposium, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Symposium, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Symposium, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Symposium, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Symposium, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tariff5+ times | Settled yes: Tariff 5+ times, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Tariff 5+ times, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Transparency | Not listed: Transparency, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Transparency, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Transparency, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Transparency, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Transparency, Oct 15 speech | Settled yes: Transparency, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Transparency, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Transparency, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Transparency, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Transparency, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Unemployment | Not listed: Unemployment, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Unemployment, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Unemployment, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Unemployment, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Unemployment, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Unemployment, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Unemployment, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Unemployment, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Unemployment, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Unemployment, May 31 remarks | – | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Volcker | Not listed: Volcker, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Volcker, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Volcker, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Volcker, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Volcker, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Volcker, Oct 25 remarks | Settled yes: Volcker, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Volcker, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Volcker, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Volcker, May 31 remarks | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Atlanta Fed | Not listed: Atlanta Fed, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Atlanta Fed, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Atlanta Fed, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Atlanta Fed, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Atlanta Fed, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Atlanta Fed, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Atlanta Fed, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Atlanta Fed, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Atlanta Fed, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Atlanta Fed, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Auto / Automotive | Not listed: Auto / Automotive, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Auto / Automotive, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Auto / Automotive, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Auto / Automotive, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Auto / Automotive, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Auto / Automotive, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Auto / Automotive, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Auto / Automotive, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Auto / Automotive, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Auto / Automotive, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Banking / Banker | Not listed: Banking / Banker, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Banking / Banker, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Banking / Banker, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Banking / Banker, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Banking / Banker, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Banking / Banker, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Banking / Banker, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Banking / Banker, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Banking / Banker, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Banking / Banker, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bitcoin | Not listed: Bitcoin, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Bitcoin, Aug 24 speech | Settled no: Bitcoin, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Bitcoin, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Bitcoin, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Bitcoin, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Bitcoin, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Bitcoin, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Bitcoin, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Bitcoin, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Mar 30 remarks | Settled no: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Michelle / Bowman | Not listed: Michelle / Bowman, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled no: Michelle / Bowman, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Michelle / Bowman, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Michelle / Bowman, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Michelle / Bowman, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Michelle / Bowman, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Michelle / Bowman, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Michelle / Bowman, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Michelle / Bowman, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Michelle / Bowman, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Careful | Not listed: Careful, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Careful, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Careful, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Careful, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Careful, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Careful, Oct 25 remarks | Settled no: Careful, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Careful, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Careful, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Careful, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Christopher / Waller | Not listed: Christopher / Waller, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled no: Christopher / Waller, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Christopher / Waller, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Christopher / Waller, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Christopher / Waller, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Christopher / Waller, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Christopher / Waller, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Christopher / Waller, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Christopher / Waller, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Christopher / Waller, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Consumer Spending | Not listed: Consumer Spending, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Consumer Spending, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Consumer Spending, Sep 23 speech | Settled no: Consumer Spending, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Consumer Spending, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Consumer Spending, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Consumer Spending, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Consumer Spending, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Consumer Spending, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Consumer Spending, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Cooling Inflation | Not listed: Cooling Inflation, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Cooling Inflation, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Cooling Inflation, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Cooling Inflation, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Cooling Inflation, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Cooling Inflation, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Cooling Inflation, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Cooling Inflation, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Cooling Inflation, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Cooling Inflation, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| COVID3+ times | Not listed: COVID 3+, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: COVID 3+, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: COVID 3+, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: COVID 3+, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: COVID 3+, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: COVID 3+, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: COVID 3+, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: COVID 3+, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: COVID 3+, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: COVID 3+, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crimson | Not listed: Crimson, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Crimson, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Crimson, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Crimson, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Crimson, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Crimson, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Crimson, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Crimson, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Settled no: Crimson, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Crimson, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Yield / Curve | Not listed: Yield / Curve, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Yield / Curve, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Yield / Curve, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Yield / Curve, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Yield / Curve, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Yield / Curve, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Yield / Curve, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Yield / Curve, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Yield / Curve, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Yield / Curve, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Debit | Not listed: Debit, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Debit, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Debit, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Debit, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Debit, Oct 15 speech | Settled no: Debit, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Debit, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Debit, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Debit, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Debit, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Debt | Not listed: Debt, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Debt, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Debt, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Debt, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Debt, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Debt, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Debt, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Debt, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Debt, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Debt, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Degree3+ times | Not listed: Degree 3+, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Degree 3+, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Degree 3+, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Degree 3+, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Degree 3+, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Degree 3+, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Degree 3+, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Degree 3+, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Degree 3+, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Degree 3+, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Recession / Depression | Not listed: Recession / Depression, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Recession / Depression, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Recession / Depression, Sep 23 speech | Settled no: Recession / Depression, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Recession / Depression, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Recession / Depression, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Recession / Depression, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Recession / Depression, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Recession / Depression, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Recession / Depression, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Dissent | Not listed: Dissent, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled no: Dissent, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Dissent, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Dissent, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Dissent, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Dissent, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Dissent, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Dissent, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Dissent, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Dissent, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Downbeat | Not listed: Downbeat, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Downbeat, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Downbeat, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Downbeat, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Downbeat, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Downbeat, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Downbeat, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Downbeat, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Downbeat, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Downbeat, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Egg | Not listed: Egg, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Egg, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Egg, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Egg, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Egg, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Egg, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Egg, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Egg, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Egg, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Egg, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target | Not listed: FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: FAIT / Flexible Average Inflation Target, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Flexibility | Not listed: Flexibility, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Flexibility, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Flexibility, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Flexibility, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Flexibility, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Flexibility, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Flexibility, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Flexibility, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Flexibility, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Flexibility, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fort Knox | Not listed: Fort Knox, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Fort Knox, Aug 24 speech | Settled no: Fort Knox, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Fort Knox, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Fort Knox, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Fort Knox, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Fort Knox, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Fort Knox, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Fort Knox, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Fort Knox, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Forward Guidance | Not listed: Forward Guidance, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Forward Guidance, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Forward Guidance, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Forward Guidance, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Forward Guidance, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Forward Guidance, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Forward Guidance, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Forward Guidance, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Forward Guidance, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Forward Guidance, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Future | Not listed: Future, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Future, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Future, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Future, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Future, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Future, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Future, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Future, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Future, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Future, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Gas / Gasoline, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Gas / Gasoline, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Gas / Gasoline, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Gas / Gasoline, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Gas / Gasoline, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Gas / Gasoline, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Gas / Gasoline, Dec 2 panel | Settled no: Gas / Gasoline, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Gas / Gasoline, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Gas / Gasoline, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 30 remarks | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Immigration | Not listed: Immigration, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Immigration, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Immigration, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Immigration, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Immigration, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Immigration, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Immigration, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Immigration, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Immigration, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Immigration, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Inflation25+ times | Not listed: Inflation 25+ times, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Inflation 25+ times, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Inflation 25+ times, Sep 23 speech | Settled no: Inflation 25+ times, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Inflation 25+ times, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Inflation 25+ times, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Inflation 25+ times, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Inflation 25+ times, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Inflation 25+ times, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Inflation 25+ times, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Inflation35+ times | Not listed: Inflation 35+ times, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Inflation 35+ times, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Inflation 35+ times, Sep 23 speech | Settled no: Inflation 35+ times, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Inflation 35+ times, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Inflation 35+ times, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Inflation 35+ times, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Inflation 35+ times, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Inflation 35+ times, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Inflation 35+ times, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Inflation40+ times | Not listed: Inflation 40+ times, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Inflation 40+ times, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Inflation 40+ times, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Inflation 40+ times, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Inflation 40+ times, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Inflation 40+ times, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Inflation 40+ times, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Inflation 40+ times, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Inflation 40+ times, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Inflation 40+ times, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Investor | Not listed: Investor, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Investor, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Investor, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Investor, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Investor, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Investor, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Investor, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Investor, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Investor, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Investor, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 30 remarks | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Labor Market10+ times | Not listed: Labor Market 10+ times, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Labor Market 10+ times, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Labor Market 10+ times, Sep 23 speech | Settled no: Labor Market 10+ times, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Labor Market 10+ times, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Labor Market 10+ times, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Labor Market 10+ times, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Labor Market 10+ times, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Labor Market 10+ times, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Labor Market 10+ times, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Labor25+ times | Settled no: Labor 25+ times, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Labor 25+ times, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Labor 25+ times, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Labor 25+ times, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Labor 25+ times, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Labor 25+ times, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Labor 25+ times, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Labor 25+ times, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Labor 25+ times, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Labor 25+ times, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Labor30+ times | Not listed: Labor (30+ times), Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled no: Labor (30+ times), Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Labor (30+ times), Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Labor (30+ times), Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Labor (30+ times), Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Labor (30+ times), Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Labor (30+ times), Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Labor (30+ times), Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Labor (30+ times), Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Labor (30+ times), May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Labor40+ times | Not listed: Labor (40+ times), Aug 22 ’25 speech | Settled no: Labor (40+ times), Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Labor (40+ times), Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Labor (40+ times), Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Labor (40+ times), Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Labor (40+ times), Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Labor (40+ times), Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Labor (40+ times), Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Labor (40+ times), Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Labor (40+ times), May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Liberation Day | Not listed: Liberation Day, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Liberation Day, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Liberation Day, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Liberation Day, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Liberation Day, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Liberation Day, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Liberation Day, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: Liberation Day, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Liberation Day, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Liberation Day, May 31 remarks | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Liquidity | Not listed: Liquidity, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: Liquidity, Aug 24 speech | Not listed: Liquidity, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: Liquidity, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: Liquidity, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: Liquidity, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: Liquidity, Dec 2 panel | Settled no: Liquidity, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: Liquidity, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: Liquidity, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| National Debt | Not listed: National Debt, Aug 22 ’25 speech | Not listed: National Debt, Aug 24 speech | Settled no: National Debt, Sep 23 speech | Not listed: National Debt, Oct 14 speech | Not listed: National Debt, Oct 15 speech | Not listed: National Debt, Oct 25 remarks | Not listed: National Debt, Dec 2 panel | Not listed: National Debt, Mar 19 ’26 remarks | Not listed: National Debt, Mar 30 remarks | Not listed: National Debt, May 31 remarks | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/jerome-powell · words: /api/v1/history?entity=jerome-powell · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP