Jerome Powell: Speech, Sep 23, 2025
Kalshi What Will Powell Say During His Speech?
Markets
33 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | Yes | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Balance of Risk | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pardon | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uncertainty 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beige Book | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Restrictive | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Credit | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Recession | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fort Knox | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Goods inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Debt | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obvious | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Probability | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| QT / Quantitative Tightening | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff Inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unchanged | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Volatility | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trade War | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Yield Curve | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| QE / Quantitative Easing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Good Afternoon | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Anchor | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Consumer Confidence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Projection | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Soft Landing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Median | No | 19%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Dot Plot | No | 19%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 15%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOWELLMENTION-25SEP23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP