Will Jerome Powell say “Unchanged”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Unchanged” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Unchanged
- Probability
- 21% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…global energy prices. Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote…
…remains somewhat elevated. Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote…
…today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. Having lowered our policy rate by 75 basis points over the course…
…the end of 2026 and 3.1 percent at the end of 2027, unchanged from September. As is always the case, these individual forecasts are subject…
…the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged. We believe that the current stance of monetary policy leaves us well…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Unchanged”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Unchanged” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Unchanged” next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Unchanged’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/unchanged (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=unchanged · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP