Jerome Powell: Speech, Aug 22, 2025
Polymarket What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22?
Markets
14 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Chair | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Employment / Unemployment 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pandemic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Payroll | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 50+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Good Morning | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Labor 25+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rate cut | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Summer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 24%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 17%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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