Will Jerome Powell say “Political / Politics”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Political / Politics” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 31, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Political / Politics
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the Fed which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors. And I want to note here this has nothing whatever to…
Honestly, I’d say a couple things. One is stay out of elected politics. Don’t get pulled into elected politics. Don’t do it. That’s another thing.…
…don’t frame these questions at all or see them in terms of political outcomes. I think when you get to another part of Washington, everything…
…balance of risks, and all the things we talk about, and not political factors. And so governments all over the advanced-economy world have chosen to…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Political / Politics |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Political / Politics”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Political / Politics” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 31, 2026.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Political / Politics” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Political / Politics’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/politic-or-political (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=politic%20%2F%20political · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP