Jerome Powell: Remarks, May 31, 2026
Kalshi What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award?
Markets
17 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | Yes | 40%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Uncertainty | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Good Evening | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Political / Politics | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President | Yes | 18%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 64%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Recession | No | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Productivity | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 40%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Dual Mandate | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kevin / Warsh | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stock Market | No | 18%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 8%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOWELLMENTION-26MAY31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP