Will Jerome Powell say “Yield / Curve”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Yield / Curve” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 16, 2025.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)
Last 10
0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Jerome Powell

Yield / Curve

Probability
– · n=1 (too little history)
Settled
0/1 (0%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, March 18, 2026 · Mar 18, 2026In transcript

…inflation is running at 2 percent. So that’s not coming from standard, Phillips-curve, restrictive, restrictive policy. It’s coming from the runoff of a one-time thing.…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, December 10, 2025 · Dec 10, 2025In transcript

…like a hot economy that wants to generate, you know, a Phillips curve kind of inflation. So we look at all those things, and we…

JENNIFER SCHONBERGERreporterFOMC press conference, September 17, 2025 · Sep 17, 2025 · 47:17In transcript

…think about this part of the mandate when policy choices, like rate cuts or balance sheet reductions, affect the long end of the yield curve?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · not listed

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What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Speech? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Apr 16, 2025Yield / CurveKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Yield / Curve”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Yield / Curve” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 16, 2025.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Yield / Curve” next time?
28%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Yield / Curve’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/curve-or-yield (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=curve%20%2F%20yield · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP