Will Jerome Powell say “Reciprocal”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Reciprocal” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 27% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Reciprocal
- Probability
- 27% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2025 | Reciprocal |  Kalshi | No |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Reciprocal | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Reciprocal”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Reciprocal” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Reciprocal” next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Reciprocal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/reciprocal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=reciprocal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP