Will Jerome Powell say “Shock”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Shock” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 30, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Shock
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…know, sort of the textbook [analysis], you would “look through” an oil shock because they tend to be short lived and they tend to revert.…
…of inflation over the last few years and how a series of shocks have interrupted progress that we’ve made over time. And that happened most…
…to be clear, do you believe that we’re experiencing a positive productivity shock, whether from AI or policy factors or whatever? And how much of…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…system, and we ask whether it’s stable and whether it could withstand shocks, right? So banks are well capitalized, while some households are clearly under…
…your employment mandate and your inflation. That’s the nature of a supply shock. And it’s probably not surprising that there would be differences and different…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Shock |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Shock”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Shock” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Shock” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Shock’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/shock (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=shock · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP