Will Jerome Powell say “Downbeat”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Downbeat” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 15, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Downbeat
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…out surveys that sound really negative and then spending. So there’s been a disconnect for some time between downbeat surveys and reasonably good spending data.
…spending data. That’s the allure. In this case, that gives a more downbeat read. So people just have—again, we’ve cut 50 more basis points in…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2025 | Downbeat |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Downbeat”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Downbeat” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Downbeat” next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Downbeat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/downbeat (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=downbeat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP