Will Jerome Powell say “Iran”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Iran” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 16% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

16%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only
Last 10
0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=iran

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Where it was said

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Jerome Powell

Iran

Probability
16% · n=2
Settled
0/2 (0%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, April 29, 2026 · Apr 29, 2026In transcript

…had the invasion of Ukraine, we had tariffs, and now we have Iran and the oil, you know, the oil spike. So those—every, every supply…

MATT EGANreporterFOMC press conference, June 18, 2025 · Jun 18, 2025 · 42:54In transcript

…crisis in the Middle East. How are you thinking about how the Israel–Iran conflict will impact the economy, especially inflation, and what lessons were learned…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · not listed

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What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Speech? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Mar 30, 2026IranKalshiNo
Mar 19, 2026IranKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Iran”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Iran” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 19, 2026.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Iran” next time?
16%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP