Will Jerome Powell say “Dissent”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Dissent” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 24, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Dissent
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Well, you’ve got three dissents in favor of a two-sided warning. You’ve got yourself staying on the Board. You’ve got the criticism that does come…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…Today’s decision was clearly very divided. It wasn’t just the two official dissents against the cut, but there were also soft dissents from four others.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…about—to the extent it related to December. You saw we had two dissents, one for 50 and one for no cut. So that was a…
…expressed prior to the meeting, I think there was a lot less dissent today than a lot of people expected. It’d be good to know…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
So on, on the dissents, you know, what you—what you want from everybody and also from a dissenter is a clear explanation for—of what your…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2025 | Dissent |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Dissent”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Dissent” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 24, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Dissent” next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Dissent’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/dissent (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=dissent · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP