Jerome Powell: Speech, Oct 15, 2025
Kalshi What will Powell say during his Speech?
Markets
26 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | Yes | 78%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Balance of Risk | Yes | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Beige Book | Yes | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Pardon | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 60%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Restrictive | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Credit | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gold | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Goods inflation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Probability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Yield Curve | Yes | 17%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Projection | Yes | 14%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Uncertainty 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stock Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | 26%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff Inflation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Unchanged | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | No | 17%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Good Afternoon | No | 15%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Consumer Confidence | No | 14%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto /Bitcoin | No | 13%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Dot Plot | No | 12%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Median | No | 12%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 10%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOWELLMENTION-25OCT15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP