Will Jerome Powell say “Bond”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Bond” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 4, 2025.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)
Last 10
1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=bond

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Where it was said

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Jerome Powell

Bond

Probability
– · n=1 (too little history)
Settled
1/1 (100%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

VICTORIA GUIDAreporterFOMC press conference, January 28, 2026 · Jan 28, 2026 · 21:54In transcript

…concerns about the U.S. fiscal trajectory, and we’ve seen in the Japanese bond market a lot of turmoil recently, in part due to concerns over…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, December 10, 2025 · Dec 10, 2025In transcript

…real economy and focusing on that. And you have—you’ve got—when the long bonds move around, you’ve got to look at why they’re moving around. If…

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What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Apr 4, 2025BondKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Bond”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Bond” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 4, 2025.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Bond” next time?
48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Bond’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/bond (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=bond · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP