Jerome Powell: Remarks, Mar 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting?
Markets
22 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Stress Test / Stress Testing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Surcharge | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Basel | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Capital Requirement | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Liquidity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Replace / Replaced / Replacement | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | 28%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Good Morning | No | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Rate | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gold | No | 21%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Leverage Ratio | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mortgage | No | 17%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Balance Sheet | No | 15%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Good Afternoon | No | 15%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 11%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-POWE26MAR19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP