Will Jerome Powell say “Liberation Day”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Liberation Day” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 4, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Liberation Day
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…a good place at the beginning of last year, they spiked around Liberation Day, and now they’ve fully retraced in the last few months. So…
…but the July 9, you know, drop-dead date for all the, the Liberation Day tariffs is still out there and unresolved. You’ve got now an…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | Liberation Day |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Liberation Day”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Liberation Day” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Liberation Day” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Liberation Day’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/liberation-day (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=liberation%20day · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP