Will Jerome Powell say “Probability”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Probability” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Probability
- Probability
- 42% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…people, as always, to look at the SEP as—through the lens of probability. And so there are—there are different possible outcomes and likelihoods rather than…
…cuts will be appropriate.” And it could be—it could be a joint probability of a number of possible outcomes. Again, remember how much uncertainty we…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | Probability |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Probability | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Probability”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Probability” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Probability” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Probability’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/probability (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=probability · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP