Will Jerome Powell say “Goods inflation”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Goods inflation” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Goods inflation
- Probability
- 42% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we see this year is progress on inflation through a reduction in goods inflation as the one-time effects on prices of tariffs go through the…
…inflation coming down, and that’s offset by increases in goods, and that goods inflation is entirely in sectors where there are tariffs. So that does…
…can take goods—just sort of the broad goods category, and last year goods inflation was negative. If you go back 25 years, that was the…
You could argue we are, a bit, “looking through” goods inflation by not raising rates. You know, we haven’t reacted to, to new inflation. But,…
…consistent with 2 percent inflation. So that’s the good news. We’ve had goods inflation just moving up a bit, and, of course, we expect—as you—as…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | Goods inflation |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Goods inflation | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Goods inflation”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Goods inflation” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Goods inflation” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Goods inflation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/goods-inflation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=goods%20inflation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP